Paul Goodwin is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Bath, where he taught and researched forecasting and decision making. He has a PhD from Lancaster University and an MSc from Warwick University and he has acted as a consultant to both leading companies and government departments.
An award winning lecturer, he regular gives talks and keynote speeches around the world to audiences ranging from hospital surgeons to curators of art galleries. He has written numerous articles and papers and he is the co-author of a bestselling book on decision making, now in its fifth edition. Since 2005 he has been the editor of the Hot New Research column for Foresight magazine and he is a former editor of the International Journal of Forecasting. In 2013 he was elected as an Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters in recognition of his contribution to forecasting.
His latest book, Forewarned: A Sceptic’s Guide to Prediction, waspublished by Biteback Publishing in July, 2017
He lives in Frome, Somerset .
LinkedIn: Paul Goodwin
Forewarned: A Sceptic’s Guide to Prediction
Whether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. But do forecasters tell you all that they know or what they really believe?
When is your gut feeling likely to be better than a computer’s prediction? Can you accurately predict your own emotional reaction to future events like a new job or a new house? And when is a ‘forecast’ not a forecast?
Forewarned will answer these questions, and many more besides, covering a wide range of topics, from business to politics, sport and lotteries, to that old perennial, the weather.
Forewarned can be seen as a consumer’s guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you’ll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You’ll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future … and when they are best ignored.
Awards & Prizes
Several awards for excellence in lecturing. Fellowship of International Institute of Forecasters. Awards for excellence in research
Pitch to Publishers & Festival Organisers
The election of Donald Trump, Brexit, Leicester City winning soccer’s Premier league title in 2016, the Great Credit Crash of 2007… surprise seems to be following surprise. Is the world becoming more unpredictable? Have forecasters lost the ability to make accurate predictions? My talk, based on my book, Forewarned: A Sceptic’s Guide to Prediction (Biteback Publishing), looks at when we can trust a prediction –whether it’s one we make ourselves or one made by an expert. It will discuss some fascinating findings from research that show when ignorance is an asset in prediction, when the predictions of experts, or even respectable organizations, can’t be trusted and why you can seldom say that an individual forecast is wrong.
Contact email: p.goodwin[@]bath.ac.uk (remove brackets for email)
Contact telephone? 07468 451501